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Apr 5, 2013
04/13
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but i think part of it is that up this enormous deficit. a deficit. down. it has to be wound it has to be wound down. as i said, if you take 1.8% of gdp out of the spending dream this year, it's very hard given how generally weak the economy very hard to get any strong growth. and of course the rest of the o. slow growth in asia and real gdp declines in europe, our are not going to be very either. yes, the fed is keeping long-term interest rates very low so we don't get the signal of how bad the fiscal deficit is, but anybody who thinks about say, you know, at some point they're going to raise more or cut spending some more and therefore, i have to be very careful about making commitments. >> but is the fed right, then, to continue with its qe? think the balance is no. that is to say that the gain getting is very small if at all anymore and the s they're building up this very large bubble in which asset prices are way out of line. ten-year treasurys at 1.7% so a ten-year treasury yield. the stock market kept artificially high by virtue of that, so i think t
but i think part of it is that up this enormous deficit. a deficit. down. it has to be wound it has to be wound down. as i said, if you take 1.8% of gdp out of the spending dream this year, it's very hard given how generally weak the economy very hard to get any strong growth. and of course the rest of the o. slow growth in asia and real gdp declines in europe, our are not going to be very either. yes, the fed is keeping long-term interest rates very low so we don't get the signal of how bad...
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Apr 1, 2013
04/13
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fiscal policy aimed at reducing the deficit. along the way, the estimate is, of most commitments, that reducing government spending will reduce jobs. by almost 800,000. so my question is this. does the federal reserve have it wrong and should it not be aimed at unemployment? or should the fiscal side adopt an unemployment target. don't cut spending, don't raise taxes as long as unemployment is above 6.5%. >> it's not hurting the economy. but i don't think the $80 million hurts. i think we have real traction. low mortgage rates helped on housing. real traction in the economy the fed could start throttling back. they won't. >> i think it makes total sense to me. if we have to get off the jump of fiscal spending the easy way is to go to the methadone clinic and get easy money. that's where we are. >> the most important thing is bringing down the the unemployment rate. then you have a government that decides to cut spending and is willing to accept the consensus 750,000 fewer jobs and a rise in the unemployment rate. >> it's a scare
fiscal policy aimed at reducing the deficit. along the way, the estimate is, of most commitments, that reducing government spending will reduce jobs. by almost 800,000. so my question is this. does the federal reserve have it wrong and should it not be aimed at unemployment? or should the fiscal side adopt an unemployment target. don't cut spending, don't raise taxes as long as unemployment is above 6.5%. >> it's not hurting the economy. but i don't think the $80 million hurts. i think we...
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Apr 3, 2013
04/13
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leaders have said it's not perfect, we don't like how it's set up, but at least we're dealing with the deficit a little bit, and now we can make better decisions. >> the world didn't end when we cut 2%. >> the tax cut story ended up being much ado about nothing. and if you look at the surprise index, citi has one, ubs has one. and you look at where those have been going and chart that with the s&p, almost a perfect correlation. the stock markets are responding to the economy. the thing distorting is the bond market. >> if it's private wealth, i imagine you don't do short-term stuff at all. a lot of people are calling for a pullback now. and they've been calling for a pullback for three months and whenever they do that, it never pulls back. >> u.s. stocks we feel are fully valued. >> fully valued? >> yep, fully valued. and we see better values in europe, global players, global franchises, based in europe that have been sold off too much. we actually see some values in japan. so we're market weight on u.s. equities. you know, in terms of short-term, our clients don't typically trade, but we do r
leaders have said it's not perfect, we don't like how it's set up, but at least we're dealing with the deficit a little bit, and now we can make better decisions. >> the world didn't end when we cut 2%. >> the tax cut story ended up being much ado about nothing. and if you look at the surprise index, citi has one, ubs has one. and you look at where those have been going and chart that with the s&p, almost a perfect correlation. the stock markets are responding to the economy....
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Apr 4, 2013
04/13
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it is really a decade or more on the deficit and the stabilization and reduction of debt. so really it's the longer term grand bargain that i think is the most important thing. >> thank for joining us this morning. >> staoefrbg thank you. >> steve, good questions. the 7% solution that you uft said, did he mean the outlet to get to seven we got close to figuring this out. i feel like i tphgs a lot better. >> okay. thanks, joe. what do you think, seven or the outlook from seven? we've got to go. >> i'll talk to you after we go. i'll be back at 8:30 and give you the answer. >> thank you. that will be perfect. jocks, globe economy, g.m.'s outlook at the global economy. plus, the steel range. awe then particular design. looked so good. we'll outside to kick the tires. not actually to a look at the car. acceler-rental. at a hertz expressrent kiosk, you can rent a car without a reservation... and without a line. now that's a fast car. it's just another way you'll be traveling at the speed of hertz. transit fares! as in the 37 billion transit fares we help collect each year. no? o
it is really a decade or more on the deficit and the stabilization and reduction of debt. so really it's the longer term grand bargain that i think is the most important thing. >> thank for joining us this morning. >> staoefrbg thank you. >> steve, good questions. the 7% solution that you uft said, did he mean the outlet to get to seven we got close to figuring this out. i feel like i tphgs a lot better. >> okay. thanks, joe. what do you think, seven or the outlook from...
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Apr 2, 2013
04/13
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the deficit cut down to $560 billion. that's new opportunity coming enlarging the market. >> you have to bet bernanke takes the foot off the gas. >> this year probably a trillion dollars of new treasuries coming to market. the fed will probably buy 54% of that. $540 billion of that. so to the extent the fed is not the buyer, the rest of the inventory will come to a natural market environment, with a higher rate of trading. once they buy, they park it on their balance sheet and don't do anything with it. we're not predicting when but we will predict they will. at some point that unnatural buying. >> when you decided you're going to pay this amount of money, which is not insignificant. >> yes. >> you had to be gambling. i assume you did some projection. when did stk this all come to an end? >> $750 million purchase price with the current state of affairs, will do well. >> who is the big competitor? >> a number of competitors. the largest is from icap. but a number of competitors, two large is being one of them. >> you think
the deficit cut down to $560 billion. that's new opportunity coming enlarging the market. >> you have to bet bernanke takes the foot off the gas. >> this year probably a trillion dollars of new treasuries coming to market. the fed will probably buy 54% of that. $540 billion of that. so to the extent the fed is not the buyer, the rest of the inventory will come to a natural market environment, with a higher rate of trading. once they buy, they park it on their balance sheet and don't...